PJP Over/Under Game – Ohio State

Courtesy: Andre Hollis / fi360 News

Indiana faces Ohio State at home this weekend. Vegas has pegged the Hoosiers as 16.5 point underdogs which sounds like a lot but is the lowest spread between these teams in years.

SP+ currently gives Indiana a 16% chance of victory.

The Hoosiers and Buckeyes have played 12 times since 2005.  If you compare the final SP+ ratings, not the rating at the time of the game but the season-ending rating, and adjust for home field advantage, Indiana would have been expected to have 0.74 TOTAL wins.  Had they won just a single game during that time period (2012 or 2014 or 2015 especially or even 2017) Indiana would be considered to have overachieved against the Buckeyes.  Yes, Indiana has failed to actually get that elusive win.  But given the opponent they are facing, you could barely call it an underachievement.

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