PJP Over/Under Game – Penn State

Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Another game means another week of PJP Over/Under picks.  Indiana again heads to Penn State with a 2 quarterback system.  Last time it was Zander Diamont and Danny Cameron.  This time it is Richard Lagow and Peyton Ramsey.  Advantage: 2017 Hoosiers.

1. Saquon Barkley All-Purpose Yards – Over/Under 199.5

The junior running back leads the nation in all-purpose yards per game at 253.  He’s tied for 11th nationally at 129.5 rushing yards per game, a figure which is 3rd in the Big Ten.  He’s also 4th in the Big Ten in receiving yards at 84 per game.  On top of that he is averaging 40 kickoff return yards per game.  He put up 358 all-purpose yards last week against Iowa and his lowest output was 183 against Pittsburgh.  Indiana bottled him up last year as he had just 58 rushing yards on 33 carries and 2 receptions for 34 yards.  However, J.K. Dobbins did run all over the Hoosiers in the season opener.

2. Hayden Whitehead punts – Over/Under 6.5

The Australian punter is averaging the 3rd most punts per game nationally at 7.7. He had 9 against Ohio State and 7 in each of the last 2 contests. Last year Joseph Gedeon averaged 4.7 punts per game and had 5 in the PSU game. Penn State is allowing 7.5 punts per game this year.

3. Indiana fumbles lost – Over/Under 0.5

In last year’s PSU game, Indiana lost 5(!) fumbles that accounted for 24 equivalent points lost. That was the difference maker in a game that Indiana led heading into the 4th quarter. This year IU has lost just 1 fumble, coming on a Richard Lagow sack. Penn State recovered 1 fumble in the Pittsburgh game, 2 against Georgia State, and 1 against Iowa.

4. Morgan Ellison rushing yards – Over/Under 69.5

After running all over the Georgia Southern defense for 186 yards, it becomes much tougher this weekend.  Penn State is allowing just 3.05 yards per attempt ranking 20th nationally.  While they allowed 155 and 150 yards rushing to Pittsburgh and Georgia State, it was on 45 and 49 carries, respectively.  Meanwhile, Ellison will have to split more carries with Mike Majette, if healthy, who sat out the GSU game.

5. Penn State 20+ yard passes – Over/Under – 4.5

The Nittany Lions are a pedestrian, by recent Trace McSorely standards, 21st in passes of 20+ yards this year at 4 per game.  Last year, Penn State was 5th nationally with 64 which is 4.6 per game.  Indiana’s defense played a big part of that ranking by allowing 8 passes of 20+ yards.  In fact, 81% of McSorley’s 332 passing yards came on those 8 plays.  This year senior speedster DaeSean Hamilton leads the Big Ten with 6 receptions of 20+ yards while Barkley has 4 himself.  If Indiana has a shot at the upset, limiting chunk plays is a must.

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