PJP Over/Under Recap – Wisconsin

Courtesy: Madison.com

In a game that was close early on, eventually Wisconsin ran away with this one…literally.  It didn’t help that Wisconsin had a huge field position advantage of over 20 yards.  That advantage was due to one disputed fumble and 2 Indiana interceptions that gave Wisconsin the ball in Indiana territory.  The advantage was also the largest of the FBS games played last week.

1. Indiana points per scoring opportunity – Over/Under 3.51 – Actual 5.7

Indiana was great when they drove deep into Badger territory. Their 5.7 points per scoring opportunity was even higher than Wisconsin’s 5.0. Unfortunately, this small advantage per opportunity was negated and then some by the fact that IU only had 3 opportunities compared to 9 for Wisconsin. The Hoosiers scored 2 touchdowns and added a field goal, but it is hard to win while only creating 3 opportunities. Of Wisconsin’s 12 drives, 9 of them ended in a scoring opportunity including all 6 second half drives. That’s a recipe for scoring 45 points.

2. Indiana second half points – Over/Under 8.5 – Actual 7

Indiana’s second half woes continue. They scored just 7 points in the second half on a Simmie Cobbs TD reception. Following that TD, Indiana’s final 14 plays gained just 41 yards, 29 of which came on Alex Rodriguez garbage time carries on the final drive, tossed 2 interceptions, and gave up a sack. Indiana is averaging just 11.4 points in the second half, 82nd nationally, and 4.1 in the 4th quarter, 117th nationally.

3. Wisconsin standard down rushing rate – Over/Under 72% – Actual 75%

Wisconsin ran and ran and ran some more. They opened the game with 8 straight runs before switching to a pass that was intercepted. The Badgers averaged over 5 yards per carry with a 53% success rate on standard down rushes. When Indiana was able to force Wisconsin to a passing down, their success rate was just 35%. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen too often.

4. Wisconsin rushing stuff rate – Over/Under 17.0% – Actual 18.3%

Of Wisconsin’s 49 rushes, Indiana forced a loss or no gain on 9. Seven of these plays forced Wisconsin into a passing down play, a situation where the advantage is tilted in favor of the defense.  Chris Covington leads the team in run stuffs with 16 followed by 10 for Tegray Scales.  On the offensive side, Indiana had a stuff rate of 14% although it was on just 14 carries.

5. Indiana special teams blunders – Over/Under 0.5 – Actual 0

No specials teams blunders in this one! The Hoosiers lost this one by struggling to develop a consistent offense, being unable to stop Wisconsin’s rushing game, and losing the turnover margin. Griffin Oakes continued his great year with another made field goal. If Indiana had an offense, he’d be one of the nation’s best in scoring. In 2015, he finished 15th nationally in scoring at 9.6 points per game. This year he is 81st at 7.0.  On another note, in the first full game since J-Shun Harris’s season ending injury, Luke Timian was back on punt returns, although he didn’t have a return.

MrMiyagi is opening up a bit of a gap on the rest of us, but there is still at least 3 more weeks to make up ground.

For the complete, current standings, click here.

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