PJP Over/Under Recap – Purdue

And we’re finally back.  Sorry, Thanksgiving travels, the lack of an upcoming game, and general depression over the Purdue game and 2017 season slowed things down around here.  We’ll have several more season recap pieces coming out so keep on the lookout.

1. IU total passing plus all-purpose yards from Indiana natives – Over/Under 15.5 – Actual 122

This one was easily to the overs thanks to a 64 yard rush from Ricky Brookins right before half.  Unfortunately, Indiana was unable to fully capitalize on a first and 10 from the Purdue 11 as the Hoosiers settled for a field goal to pull within 11.  He had 71 total rushing yards on 2 carries and 48 receiving yards catching 8 of his 9 targets.  Ryan Watercutter added 3 yards by catching his only target.

2. Richard Lagow Yards per Attempt minus number of interceptions – Over/Under 6.3 – Actual 5.2

This one would have been a little closer if it weren’t for Richard Lagow’s mind-boggling interception on his first pass attempt.  He finished at 6.2 yards per attempt so subtracting out his 1 interception leaves us at 5.2.  His YPA was actually just 4.4 through Indiana’s first 13 drives.  It was the final 3 drives, and 17 pass attempts, where he averaged 10.7 yards per attempt aided by gains of 28, 22, 25, 21, 15, and 17.  Unfortunately it was too little too late as time expired on the Hoosiers and their bowl chances.  For his career, he finished at 7.2 yards per attempt, with 34 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.  His completion percentage was 58% and he averaged an interception every 29 pass attempts.  His 5,298 passing yards is the 8th most in program history.

3. Indiana standard down success rate in non-garbage time – Over/Under 42% – Actual 32%

Indiana struggled on standard downs with just a 32% success rate.  On first down, 17 of Indiana’s 35 plays gained no yards or lost yards.  In terms of leverage rate, the percentage of total plays that are standard down situations, Indiana’s 57% was the second worst of the season.  Only the Ohio State game saw Indiana in more passing down situations.  Indiana particularly struggled rushing the ball on standard downs with a rushing success rate of just 20%.  Indiana is 114th in overall success rate and 120th on standard downs.  For a group that was anything but explosive, the inability to consistently move the chains doomed the offense.

4. Havoc Rate by IU seniors in non-garbage time – Over/Under 10% – Actual 10.4%

Indiana’s seniors recorded a 10.4% havoc rate in non-garbage time.  Chase Dutra led the way with 2 passes defended and a tackle for loss.  Tegray Scales added both a PBU and a TFL.  Greg Gooch both had a TFL and Rashard Fant had a PBU.  The 7 havoc plays are relatively low, but Purdue only ran 71 non-kneel down plays and 4 of them were under the definition of garbage time.  During this garbage time, senior Chris Covington did record a TFL.  Additionally, non-seniors Jonathan Crawford, Gavin Everett, and A’Shon Riggins recorded a havoc play giving IU an overall 14.9% non-garbage time rate.  These players, Crawford and Riggins in particular, will be heavily relied on in 2018.  Indiana is currently 49th in havoc rate at 16.9%

5. Indiana turnover margin – Over/Under 0.5 – Actual 0

Richard Lagow forced Indiana into an early deficit, both in turnover margin and the score, with his opening drive interception.  While the Hoosiers would force and recover a fumble later, it was the final turnover of the game for both teams.  With the struggles of the IU offense, it was probably necessary for Indiana to force more turnovers in order to win.  They didn’t come and the Hoosiers fell short.  Indiana finishes at -7 turnover margin, currently 108th nationally.  They were only able to force 13 turnovers which are the fewest since recovering 13 in the 2012 season.

Congrats to MrMiyagi on claiming the regular season title.  We’ll be back soon with our 2017 season-long over/under recap to see if he can claim the 2017 championship.

For the complete, current standings, click here.

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