PJP Over/Under Recap – Virginia

Courtesy: Joe Ullrich

In a downpour that saw just 256 combined passing yards for both teams, the Hoosiers moved to 2-0.  It can be somewhat difficult to make any assertions with the weather playing such a big factor.  But it is clear that, in Stevie Scott, Indiana has found its lead back.

1. Combined rushing yards by Reese Taylor and Whop Philyor – Over/Under 39.5 – Actual: 6

Taylor received his first carry on Indiana’s second drive, a carry he took for 12 yards down to the Virginia 9.  It set up Peyton Ramsey’s touchdown pass to Donovan Hale.  At this point it looked like this duo would go over our 39.5 yard threshold, but Taylor received only 2 more carries, losing 6 yards in the process.  Whop Philyor was often set in motion, but received no carries.  It did appear that Virginia made it a point to eliminate the jet sweep which probably led to the lack of Philyor touches.  However, it did open things up a bit for Stevie Scott on inside rushes.

2. Indiana RB rushing explosive rate in non-garbage time – Over/Under 5.99% – Actual: 9.7%

After faking a handoff to Whop Philyor in motion, Peyton Ramsey handed off to Stevie Scott who busted up the middle for a 40 yard gain on his second carry of the evening.  Scott added a 42 yard rush on his first carry in the second half.  He also had a 14 yard run during his 23 second half carries.  On the game, Scott constantly moved the ball forward with a 55% success rate.  He had a stuff rate of 10%, having just 2 carries of no gain and 1 carry that lost a yard.  Indiana still needs another back or two to complement Scott, but his emergence has stabilized that position.

3. Bryce Perkins rushing yards excluding sacks – Over/Under 89.5 – Actual: 124

Bryce Perkins rushed for 124 yards on 24 carries.  That isn’t ideal for the Indiana defense but 70 of those yards came on 5 first quarter carries including a 47 yard gain on Virginia’s first drive.  From the second quarter on, the Hoosiers held him to 54 yards on 19 carries, an average of just 2.8.  Yes, the rain helped slow Perkins down, but it was also a solid performance by the Indiana defense.

4. Virginia sack rate allowed in non-garbage time – Over/Under 7.4% – Actual: 4.0%

Bryce Perkins passed for just 106 yards on 24 attempts, taking just 1 sack.  There were a couple times the Hoosiers got close to Perkins only for him to evade the IU defender. Syracuse-transfer Kayton Samuels had Indiana’s lone sack of the day.  Up next is a Ball State team that has allowed just 1 sack this year.

5. Indiana drives with 10+ plays – Over/Under 2.5 – Actual: 2

Indiana’s first drive was headed for 10+ plays until Stevie Scott’s 40 yard run on the 9th play of the drive resulted in a touchdown.  I’ll take it.  It wasn’t until Indiana’s 9th and 10th drives of the game that the Hoosiers reached the 10+ play mark.  Both drives sucked about 5 minutes off the clock although, interestingly, both ended in punts.

6. Indiana winning margin – Over/Under 6.5 – Actual: 4

The Hoosiers didn’t cover the Vegas spread, but the important thing is Indiana is 2-0.  Using Equivalent Points, Indiana played well enough to win by 9.  Each team recovered 1 turnover and the Hoosiers out-gained the Cavaliers by 93 yards.  In Bill Connelly’s week 2 box score, teams performing similarly to Indiana win 95% of their games.  Indiana was the better team.  Indiana deserved to win. But it was still a little too close for comfort.

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Billy