PJP Over/Under Game – Ohio State

Courtesy: Darron Cummings / Associated Press

It’s Ohio State week.  Let’s just hope the Hoosiers emerge uninjured and ready to battle Iowa the following week.  It’s be interesting to see if players such as Luke Timian, Whop Philyor, Jacob Robinson, and A’Shon Riggins play.

1. Indiana passes of 30+ yards – Over/Under 0.5

Last week we did Indiana passes of 20+ yards and this week we’ll step it up to 30+ yards. Indiana has struggled to generate big plays, particularly in the passing game.  They have just 3 passes of 30+ yards this year.  The first was a 34 yard pass to Donovan Hale from Michael Penix against FIU.  The next was a Ramsey 33 yard completion to Hale against Virginia.  The final was the 65 yard Whop Philyor touchdown against Michigan State.  Indiana ranks 121st in Bill Connelly’s passing marginal explosiveness metric.  However, they are going up against an Ohio State defense that, while stout, has been vulnerable against long pass plays.  They’ve give up 9 passes of 30+ yards, 95th nationally.  They are also 104th defensively in passing marginal explosiveness.  If Indiana has any shot at keeping this game close, it’s going to take a big play or two or three or four.

2. Most consecutive successful IU plays in non-garbage time – Over/Under 4.5

Indiana’s best sequence of plays, by success rate, actually came in the Michigan State game.  Indiana had all successful plays over an 7 play sequence.  First Ramsey converted a 4th down to J-Shun Harris. Then he found Nick Westbrook for 9 yards on 1st down and on 2nd down Mike Majette picked up the first.  On the next play, Ramsey found Philyor who took it to the house for a 65 yard touchdown.  The next drive opened with Ramsey scrambling for 6, a pass to Philyor for the first down, and a 10 yard completion to Donovan Hale.  The successful streak ended with Mike Majette only gaining 4 yards on 1st and 10.  Other than that streak of 7 plays, IU had 6 consecutive successful plays against Virginia and 2 such 5 play streaks against FIU and an additional one against UVA.  They’ll be facing an Ohio State defense ranked 7th nationally in defensive success rate.

3. J.K. Dobbins rushing yards – Over/Under 69.5

Dobbins set his career high in rushing yards with 181 in his debut last season against Indiana.  It did take him 29 attempts to get that amount.  While a 6.2 yards per attempts average is pretty good, much of that damage was done on 3 runs.  On those 3 runs he gained 35, 27, and 24 yards.  On his other 26 runs, he averaged 3.65 yards including 15 runs where he gained just 3 yards or fewer.  Dobbins splits time with Mike Weber so, baring injury, he won’t come close to the number of carries he saw last season.  He’s averaging 76 rushing yards per game and his season high is 121 against TCU.  Indiana is 20th nationally in defensive marginal efficiency and is allowing 144 non-sack rushing yards per game.

4. Dwayne Haskins passing yards per attempt – Over/Under 8.49

Peyton Ramsey is first in the Big Ten in completion percentage at 71.0%.  Dwayne Haskins is right behind at 70.8%.  However, he’s also averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt, best in the B1G and Ramsey is 12th at 6.4.  It’s no wonder that Haskins is on pace to shatter most of Ohio State’s single-season passing records.  He averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt against Penn State, but has eclipsed 9.0 YPA in the other 4 games.  Nationally, he ranks 12th in YPA.  Indiana’s defense is 16th nationally at 5.7 YPA allowed.  Their worst performance so far was against Michigan State allowing 8.4 YPA.

5. Total Ohio State sacks – Over/Under 3.5

The Buckeyes have what is known as a good defensive line.  They are 2nd nationally with 19 sacks and have at least 3 in every game.  Fortunately for Indiana, OSU DE Nick Bosa is injured and out indefinitely.  Dre’Mont Jones was also injured against Penn State but seems in line to play against Indiana.  He has 3.5 sacks on the year.  Chase Young has 4 sacks on the season including 2 against Penn State.  Indiana has only allowed 6 sacks on the season, but that has a lot to do with Ramsey’s ability to escape pressure and his understanding of when to throw the ball away.  The offensive line has struggled at times this year.  In the first 3 quarters of the Michigan State game, the line allowed a pressure on 38% of IU’s pass plays.  They’ll face an even bigger challenge on Saturday.

6. Ohio State winning margin – Over/Under 24.5

Vegas opened with Ohio State as a 27 point favorite.  Bill Connelly at Football Study Hall has Ohio State as a 21 point favorite.

If you are picking the over, you are picking Ohio State to win by 25+ points.  If you are picking the under, you are picking Ohio State to lose or win by 24 or fewer points.

This over/under is worth 2 points so make it a good one.

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