PJP Over/Under Recap – Iowa

Courtesy: Hawk Central

We’ve reached “that game”.  You know, the first potential victory turned blowout following the start of Hoosier Hysteria.  The one that starts the mass exodus.  If you’re still reading, you’re truly an Indiana football fan.  Frankly, if you were ever reading this site, you are truly an Indiana football fan.  Or your parents have cruel internet blockers set up.

1. Indiana passes of 20+ yards – Over/Under 3.5 – Actual: 1

A week after Indiana’s big play performance against Ohio State, the Hoosiers ran into the stifling Hawkeye defense.  Indiana managed just 1 pass of 20+ yards.  It was a 33-yard touchdown reception from Peyton Ramsey to Ty Fryfogle early in the 2nd quarter.  It was the only deep pass play that the Hoosiers would connect on.  A year after IU finished 109th nationally in yards per attempt, Indiana is 104th in 2018.  The Hoosiers are also 114th nationally in the percentage of pass attempts that go for 20+ yards at 7.5%.  Penn State is 20th nationally in passing defense explosiveness.

2. J-Shun Harris targets – Over/Under 6.5 – Actual: 5

While Whop Philyor played, it was only a handful of plays and he didn’t see a target.  However, Luke Timian saw his first action since the Ball State game and led the Hoosiers with 9 targets.  Timian is a fine receiver.  He’s one of Indiana’s best pass catchers.  But he shouldn’t he seeing 3 times the number of targets that Nick Westbrook is seeing.  It seems to be a weakness with the way this offense operates.  Oh, was this over/under on J-Shun?  Sorry for the digression.  Timian’s return cut into Harris’ targets although his playing time wasn’t as affected.  He caught just 2 of his passes for a total of 11 yards.

3. Indiana sacks – Over/Under 2.5 – Actual: 1

Just one sack for Indiana in this one although the Hoosiers left a couple sacks on the field.  Jerome Johnson made the sack on the last play of the first half with Iowa attempting a Hail Mary.  Johnson benefited from pressure provided by Allen Stallings who forced Nate Stanley to step up into Johnson.  The Hoosiers are averaging just 1.71 per game, 87th nationally and are 79th in havoc rate.

4. Rushing yards by Iowa’s leading RB – Over/Under 69.5 – Actual: 96

Toren Young rushed 19 times for 96 yards, never once losing yardage on a carry and having just 1 carry of no gain.  He actually cleared the 70 yard mark on his 11th carry of the game early in the 3rd quarter.  He added 25 more yards the rest of the way for good measure.  While Indiana is still solid against the run, it wasn’t the best day for the Hoosiers.  It won’t get any easier this weekend with Miles Sanders and Penn State.  The junior struggled against Ohio State, but broke out for 162 yards on 17 attempts against Michigan State last week.  He’s 2nd in the Big Ten in rushing.  Even acknowledging that, it might actually benefit Indiana to force Sanders to beat them and focus on stopping Trace McSorley.  The senior has had a slightly down year without former-OC Joe Moorhead, but is still very capable.  Plus the Hoosiers have allowed 12 passing touchdowns in the last 2 games.

5. Announced attendance – Over/Under 45,999.5 – Actual: 40,512

It was a light and unenthusiastic crowd.  Granted, the team didn’t really give the fans much to cheer about.  Attendance in college football is down across the nation.  Maybe Indiana was just the trend-setter!

6. Iowa winning margin – Over/Under 4.5

There isn’t much to say here.  Not only was this one not close to the Vegas or Football Study Hall spread, but it wasn’t even close.  Indiana now faces up uphill battle for a bowl game.

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Billy