PJP Over/Under Recap – Purdue

Courtesy: whas11.com

After a much need break from IU football, for both the writers and the readers, we’re back!  Actually I was just hoping that if nothing happened for a while that someone would email a recap for me to post.  But that didn’t happen so here we are.  Let’s quickly recap.

1. Anthony McFarland rushing yards minus Stevie Scott rushing yards – Over/Under 19.5 – Actual: -92

Scott was Indiana’s best offensive weapon against Purdue, rushing 20 times for 104 yards.  By going over 100 yards, he eclipsed the century mark in half of his games this year.  Additionally, Anthony McFarland rushed for 286 fewer yards against Penn State than he did the week before against Ohio State.  With just 12 rushing yards, it meant that Stevie Scott will lead the Big Ten freshmen in rushing at 1,137 yards.  He had a 46% non-garbage success rate rushing which was essentially the mark that Morgan Ellison produced in 2017.  Baring anything unforeseen, he’ll lead IU in rushing again in 2019.

2.  IU total passing plus all-purpose yards from Indiana natives  – Over/Under 79.5 – Actual: 61

J-Shun Harris was unable to get loose on a punt return, losing 1 total yard on 2 punt returns.  He also lost 2 yards on a rush but did add 3 catches for 22 yards on 4 targets.  Ricky Brookins made his annual contribution to the Bucket game catching 3 of his 4 targets for 19 yards.  Finally, Peyton Hendershot added 2 catches for 15 yards and Reese Taylor continued to be nearly invisible with 1 catch on his only target for 8 yards.

3. Rondale Moore all-purpose yards – Over/Under 172.5 – Actual: 154

Moore torched the Hoosiers on offense catching 12 of 15 balls for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The two touchdowns were his longest 2 receptions of the day going for 56 and 33 yards.  He was also tackled by Devon Matthews for a 2 yard loss before an ill-advised throat slash moved the marker from 3rd and 20 to 1st and 10.  Moore also added 3 rushes for 13 yards.  While the freshman dominated on offense he was limited on special teams by a couple of factors.  First, Indiana only scored 3 times meaning IU had just 3 kickoffs once you exclude the final onside kick (actually recovered by Moore).  Twice Jared Smolar kicked it into the endzone for a touchback.  One time IU kicked it short.  If the strategy was to avoid kicking to Moore, it was probably a smart strategy.  Too bad there were not more opportunities to avoid kicking to him…

4. Havoc Rate by IU seniors in non-garbage time – Over/Under 2.99% – Actual: 6%

Havoc Rate is a team’s total tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles divided by total plays.  The Hoosiers brought it in this one with 11 tackles for loss, a season high.  This figure also include 5 sacks, also a season high.  The Hoosiers also had 4 pass breakups and an interception.  Andre Brown was the leading havoc player with 1 TFL and 2 PBUs.  As for the senior class, Jonathan Crawford had 1.5 havoc plays, Nile Sykes and Mike Barwick each added one and Dameon Willis added 0.5 on a TFL.  This added up to a senior havoc rate of 6%.  While there are certain plays and penalties you’d rather have back, this loss certainly doesn’t fall on the defense.

5. Reese Taylor QB snaps plus pass attempts – Over/Under 0.5 – Actual: 0

Zip, nada, nil.  There were no special plays for Taylor in this one.  Taylor did catch 1 pass but that was pretty much it.  With the returns of Peyton Ramsey and Michael Penix it will be interesting if Taylor goes back to being mainly a defensive player playing limitedly on offense or stays at QB/WR.

6. Purdue winning margin – Over/Under 3.5 – Actual: 7

A 7 point victory for the Boilers sends them to the Music City Bowl. It was Jeff Brohm’s second straight victory over the Hoosiers and things will likely be tougher next year with the game in West Lafayette and the return of Brohm.

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Billy