PJP Over/Under Game: Week 2

Courtesy idsnews.com

Courtesy idsnews.com

It seems like the Indiana State game was months ago, doesn’t it?  After what has apparently only been a week off, IU returns to the field on Saturday, which means it’s time for the second installment of the PJP Over/Under Game.

For those who missed the action in Week 1:  every week, we’re going to post seven over/under “bets.” Six of those over/unders will relate to that week’s IU game; the seventh will relate to something else going on in the B1G that week. You will read them, ponder them, roll them around in your mind for a while and then sometime before that Saturday at noon, you’ll send us an email at puntjohnpunt@gmail.com, tweet us @puntjohnpunt or post a comment with your picks. A simple chain of O’s and U’s will do.

The standings after Week 1 can be found here.

Your Week 2 Over/Unders:

1.  Total Number of Plays – Over/Under 149.5

Background: There were 161 total plays in last year’s game.  Bowling Green ran 71 plays in each of its first two games this season. IU ran 87 plays against Indiana St.  IU averaged 77 plays/game in 2013.

2. Combined Targets for Shane Wynn and Nick Stoner – Over/Under 10.5

Background: The pair combined for 5 targets in the Indiana St. game. “Targets,” as you might expect, are the amount of times the ball is thrown in the direction of a given receiver (catches are included).  We will use the official IU play-by-play data to determine targets (it notes the intended receiver of incomplete passes).

3. Success Rate on Pass Plays – Over/Under 45%

Background: A successful play is one that gains at least half the necessary distance on 1st down, 70% of the remaining distance on 2nd down or whatever is needed to convert on 3rd and 4th down.  We are only looking at passing plays here.  Against Bowling Green in 2013, IU was successful on just under 60% of its passing plays. For the 2013 season, IU was successful on 44.4% of its passing plays.   In the Indiana State game, IU was successful on just 36% of its passing plays.  Bowling Green is currently 114th in the nation in Def. S&P+, a stat that includes success rate.[ref] Their passing success rate allowed was not available – and I didn’t really feel like calculating it – but rest assured, it is not good. [/ref]

4. Unproductive drives forced by the IU defense  – Over/Under 3.5

Background: An unproductive drive is any possession in which the offense gains 1 first down or fewer.  A drive that ends in a turnover before the offense gains its second first down is included.  Last season, IU forced Bowling Green into 3 unproductive drives.  For the 2013 season, IU forced an average of 2.75 unproductive drives per game.  So far this season, Bowling Green had 4 unproductive drives against Western Kentucky and 3 against VMI (excluding garbage time in both instances).  IU forced 8 such drives against Indiana State.

5. Bobby Richardson sacks  – Over/Under .5

Background: Richardson had 3 sacks against Indiana State. The senior now has 8.5 sacks in his career.

6. Aaron Del Grosso made field goals – Over/Under .5

Background: He missed his only field goal attempt (a 26-yarder) against Indiana State.  K Dub hates field goals.  Let’s start small.

7. B1G wins against Power 5 conference opponents (including Notre Dame)  – Over/Under 1.5

Background: B1G teams play 5 games against Power 5 conference opponents this week, two in which the B1G team is favored (WVU at Maryland, Iowa St. at Iowa) and three in which the B1G team is the underdog (Minnesota at TCU, Illinois at Washington, Purdue vs. Notre Dame in Indianapolis).  If the under takes this one, we can all look forward to another week of B1G bashing…

Get those picks in.  Good luck and Go Hoosiers.