Advanced Box Score – Maryland

Courtesy: Hoosier Scoop

Courtesy: Hoosier Scoop

This will probably be relatively brief.  The numbers aren’t pretty and I’m sure no one wants to relive that game.

Here are your positives:

1) It seems we have found a field goal kicker.

2) Chris Covington gained yards.  We’re digging deep here.

3) It still appears that Indiana can beat Michigan.  It’s pretty bad when IU plays that poorly at home and you can still make that statement.

Onward to the numbers.

We classify garbage time as anytime the lead is over 28 points in the 1st, 24 in the 2nd, 21 in the 3rd, and 16 in the 4th.  Therefore, close time is anything but garbage time.  While this cutoff isn’t perfect, it is a fair ruleset so we will follow it.  For this game, the garbage time started when the 4th quarter started and Indiana was down 18.  Anything that starts with the word “close” is a stat from non-garbage time only.

Also, Kevin Wilson was apparently not pleased about the leverage rate that the IU defense allowed to Maryland.

I’m sure staying on schedule and having a better leverage rate wasn’t the only thing KW was disappointed about.

Random thoughts:

  • Indiana got beat on all facets of the game.  It was a sad sight to see.
  • The Hoosiers only got 1 touchdown after reaching the 40.  If they would have done the same thing last week, they wouldn’t have won.
  • Indiana had 5 consecutive drives that didn’t reach the Maryland 40.
  • Maryland was just more explosive than the Hoosiers.[ref]Defined here as a rush of 10 or greater yards or a pass of 20 or greater yards[/ref]  The Terps had 7 passes of greater than 20 or greater yards.  Indiana didn’t even have 7 explosive plays, rush or pass[ref]Indiana had just 6[/ref]
  • Maryland’s isoPPP[ref]PPP on successful plays only[/ref] was 0.94 compared to 0.47 for Indiana.  This means not only was Maryland more frequently explosive, but their big plays were roughly twice as big as Indiana’s.
  • The Indiana running game never really got going.  Evidence of small holes to run though, the line yards per carry is pretty low.  Maryland wasn’t much better, and really didn’t run the ball well, but they didn’t need to.
  • The usually explosive Tevin Coleman had one 50 yard TD run called back due to penalty.  He ended up with nice numbers, 122 yards on 22 carries and a TD, but really wasn’t that productive.  He had one run of 43 yards.  Other than that and a 10 yard run, his other 20 carries were less than 10 yards.
  • Indiana won the highlight yards per opportunity battle based on the aforementioned run of 43 yards by Coleman.  Take that run out and the highlight yards per opportunity falls to 1.5.
  • The Maryland passing game was really good.  We’ll look at it later this week, but the Maryland wide receivers were open and productive.  Something that Indiana sorely misses from last year.  Indiana’s success rate for pass plays was 31%.  The Hoosiers won’t win many ballgames with a passing success rate that low.  By comparison, against Missouri the Indiana passing success rate was 42%.
  • The Indiana average PPP[ref]Equivalent Points per Play.  It is calculated by giving each yard line a point value based on the average number of points a team can expect to score from that spot on the field. From there, each gain or loss is given a point value based on the change in EqPts.[/ref] was terribly poor.  The Hoosiers were neither efficient nor explosive.
  • The game, tied 3-3 starting the 2nd quarter, was very even in the 1st quarter as evidenced by the S&P.  Then Maryland decided to win.
  • Indiana didn’t project to lose as much as they actually lost.  Not that this really matters.