It is that annual week again. Don’t worry, we will all get through it together. And while we are at it, won’t you submit your guesses for this week’s PJP over/under game?
As always, post your picks in the comments, tweet them to @puntjohnpunt or email them to firstname.lastname@example.org.
1. IU points per scoring opportunity – Over/Under 2.7
Background: We often reference points per trip inside the 40 in our advanced box scores. We’ll take it a step further and set the line on points per scoring opportunity. What is a “scoring opportunity”? A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent’s 40 (or scores from outside the 40). Against Rutgers, the Hoosiers had 9 scoring opportunities resulting in their 23 points. This 2.56 points per scoring opportunity average is significantly less than the national average of 4.67. For comparison, Ohio State allowed 4.00 points per scoring opportunity against Minnesota last week.
2. Offensive line penalties – Over/Under 3.5
Background: Last week, the Indiana offensive line had 4 penalties called on them. Let’s go through the Jason Spriggs trifecta: holding, personal foul, false start. He was a chop block away from the golden sombrero. Dan Feeney also added a holding penalty for good measure.
3. Indiana turnovers – Over/Under 2.5
Background: Last week, Indiana fumbled 4 times, losing 2 of them. Diamont also tossed an interception. On the season, Ohio State has recovered 6 fumbles and 16 interceptions whereas Indiana has lost 8 fumbles and 8 interceptions.
4. End of the first quarter score margin – Over/Under 13.5
Background: You know, will Indiana be up more than 13? Or Ohio State, I suppose. For first quarters only, the Buckeyes are 4th in the nation in scoring averaging 12.7 points and 33rd in defensive points allowed at 4.5 The Indiana defense is 69th in 1st quarter scoring averaging 6.8 points and the offense averages 5.7 points ranking 76th.
5. J.T. Barrett total touchdowns– Over/Under 4.5
Background: Preseason OSU backup quarterback[ref]If I ever hear an Ohio State fan complain about ANYTHING….[/ref] J.T. Barrett leads the nation in total touchdowns with 38. Indiana allows 4.3 touchdowns per game. Also, Ohio State is in the running, although currently on the outside, for one of the four playoff spots.
6. Joey Bosa sacks– Over/Under 1.5
Background: Ohio State DE Joey Bosa is tied for 5th in the NCAA in sacks at 11.5. Missouri DE Shane Ray, who ranks 3rd in the NCAA in sacks at 13, had 1 sack against Indiana. However, that was with the more experienced Sudfeld at QB. Young Zander Diamont was sacked 5 times last week.
7. B1G games outscoring the IU/Ohio State game – Over/Under 0.5
Background: Vegas projects the Indiana/Ohio State game to be the highest scoring Big Ten game this week with an O/U of 65.5.[ref] Vegas is expecting a shootout! Oh wait, it’s not a shootout if only one team is shooting? Ok, never mind. [/ref] The other games are as follows: Rutgers/Michigan State (58.5), Minnesota/Nebraska (56.5), Wisconsin/Iowa (51.5), Northwestern/Purdue (49.5), Penn State/Illinois (44), and Maryland/Minnesota (41.5)
Check out the standings here.