Over the course of the season, the college football fan will be inundated with reports and updates regarding the conference championship and playoff races. And that’s fantastic. The College Football Playoff, at least in my view, has added to the regular season by keeping more teams in the running. For those teams in the running and their fanbases—and for those, like me and maybe you, who just love college football—the playoff and conference championship races are riveting entertainment.
Because those races are so enthralling, it’s easy to forget that there’s more going on in college football than just those 8 to 10 teams jockeying for end-of-season position. There are 66 teams in the Power Five[ref] I’m including high-level independents Notre Dame and BYU in that total.[/ref], and most of them are not playoff contenders. Some are not even in the running for conference championships. In fact, the most realistic goal for a certain subset of the Power 5 is bowl eligibility. Six wins.[ref] Assuming a 12-game season. As we’ll see, for teams that play at Hawaii, and therefore play an extra regular season game, seven wins are necessary.[/ref] As an IU fan, you’re undoubtedly familiar with this sort of modest goal-setting.
While the college football media doesn’t really cover the quest to achieve bowl eligibility[ref] Understandably, I might add, but that’s not to say that there isn’t some precedent for major media coverage of somewhat dubious accomplishments. At the end of each Premier League season, substantial attention is paid to those struggling soccer clubs that are trying to avoid relegation (i.e. being sent to a lower league). Obviously, that situation is a little different, but in certain situations – like say, IU in 2015 – the consequences of missing a bowl game (losing a coach, essentially rebooting the program) and being relegated are not all that different.[/ref], the journey is nonetheless compelling and important to fans that follow teams that fall in that particular group.[ref] Even though these fanbases are much smaller and generally, for fear of ridicule, much quieter, than fans of college football’s big boys.[/ref] Many of the programs that aspire only for bowl eligibility were discussed in our off-season series on parity in college football (which you can find here, here and here), during which we discussed some of the underlying reasons college football is stratified as it is.
In recognition of the importance that our particular fanbase and others like it place on obtaining that elusive 6th win, we’ll do our part this season to track the progress of similarly situated, teams. With a nod to Coach Hep’s famous Play 13 motto, we’ll call it the Race For 13.[ref] #R413 [/ref] For a team to qualify to the Race, three qualifications must be met:
- Must be in the Power 5. I know there are another 60+ teams in the Group of 5 that are ignored to an even greater extent, but this is an IU site and there’s only so much we can do. Sorry directional Michigans. At least you still have this guy.
- If the team accomplishes nothing more than merely qualifying for a bowl in 2015 (i.e. goes 6-6 in the regular season), that team’s fanbase must view the season as a success. I get that this is a little subjective, but it was necessary to exclude Michigan. Michigan qualifies under the other two rules, but even the most reasonable Michigan fan probably wouldn’t call a 6-6 season a success.
- Cannot have played in bowl game following the 2014 season. Given the present situation in Champaign, I have to imagine that Illinois fans would be thrilled if the Illini won 6 games in 2015, but because they somehow went to a bowl in 2014, they’re ineligible.
Applying those three rules leaves 15 teams in the 2015 Race For 13, ranked below in descending order from most likely to qualify for a bowl to least. Don’t get too caught up on the order – I don’t claim to be an expert on all of these teams so the rankings necessarily involve some guesswork. I’m primarily going on last year’s results, what little I may have heard about these teams in the past month and a quick look at the schedule.
(1) Texas Tech
2014 Record: 4-8
Last Bowl: 2013
Schedule Analysis: The Red Raiders should start 2-0 (Sam Houston St., UTEP), fall to 2-3 after three games against teams ranked #18 or higher (Arkansas, TCU, Baylor) and then will need to win 4 of their last 7, which includes manageable games against Race For 13 opponents Iowa State and Kansas, and four other games which seem to be within the realm of the possible (Oklahoma State, at West Virginia, Kansas State and at Texas). Like the other Big 12 and Pac-12 teams on this list, the nine-game conference schedule does them no favors.
(2) Washington State
2014 Record: 3-9
Last Bowl: 2013
Schedule Analysis: Mike Leach’s Cougs should be favored in four home games this season (Portland State, Wyoming, Oregon State and Colorado) and have three winnable road games (Rutgers, Cal and Washington).
(3) Kentucky
2014 Record: 5-7
Last Bowl: 2010
Schedule Analysis: The ‘Cats should get halfway to six against three weak non-conference opponents. To make it the rest of the way, they’ll need to win at Vandy, and win two of four tough-but-far-from-impossible home games against Florida, Missouri, Tennessee and Louisville.
(4) Northwestern
2014 Record: 5-7
Last Bowl: 2012
Schedule Analysis: Northwestern, like fellow #R413-er Purdue, benefits from playing in perhaps the weakest division in the Power 5 – the B1G West. Non-conference games against Stanford and Duke don’t help the Wildcats’ cause, but they miss sure-losses Ohio State and Michigan State as crossover opponents; instead, they play Michigan and Penn State, both of whom they beat in 2014.
(5) Cal
2014 Record: 5-7
Last Bowl: 2011
Schedule Analysis: Of the teams on this list, Cal was probably the most deserving of bowl eligibility in 2014, losing four games by fewer than 8 points. This year, the Golden Bears appear likely be favored in only four or maybe five games (Grambling, San Diego St., at Washington, Washington St. and Oregon St.), but the other seven games are either against ranked opponents (UCLA, USC, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona St.) or are on the road against potentially dangerous teams (Texas and Utah). If Cal makes a bowl game, they’ll have earned it.
(6) Indiana
2014 Record: 4-8
Last Bowl: 2007
Schedule Analysis: I’m sure you’ve all had a look at this schedule. Four winnable non-conference games, three manageable conference home games (Rutgers, Iowa, Michigan) and a road game Purdue. It’s not as soft as a B1G West schedule, but in comparison to some of the schedules of teams on this list, it’s a walk in the park.
(7) Colorado
2014 Record: 2-10
Last Bowl: 2007
Schedule Analysis: The Buffs are the only team on this list that has to win seven games to secure bowl eligibility, thanks to a Week 1 game at Hawaii. The non-conference slate is manageable, with UMass, Colorado State and Nicholls State, along with the aforementioned Rainbows, er, I mean Warriors. Colorado’s conference schedule, on the other hand, is brutal. All four conference home games are against teams ranked in the preseason Top 25 (Oregon, Arizona, Stanford and USC), and they have to go on the road to two other ranked conference opponents (UCLA and Arizona State). All told, I expect Colorado to be the underdog in all nine of its Pac-12 games.
(8) Syracuse
2014 Record: 3-9
Last Bowl: 2013
Schedule Analysis: Speaking of walks in the park. Aside from a guaranteed beat-down at the hands of LSU, the non-conference slate is there for the taking (Rhode Island, CMU and at South Florida). The Orange also gets Wake Forest, Pitt and Boston College at the Carrier Dome.
(9) Oregon State
2014 Record: 5-7
Last Bowl: 2013
Schedule Analysis: A trip to the Big House complicates the non-conference schedule. The conference schedule isn’t terrible by Pac-12 standards, but I just don’t see four wins in there, which is what they’ll likely need to get to six.
(10) Purdue
2014 Record: 3-9
Last Bowl: 2012
Schedule Analysis: The AD did Coach Hazell no favors here. The Boilers start with a road game against a strong Marshall team and also host Virginia Tech. Still, that B1G West schedule provides a glimmer of hope. The final four games are all winnable: home against Illinois, at Northwestern, at Iowa, then home against IU.
(11) Iowa State
2014 Record: 2-10
Last Bowl: 2012
Schedule Analysis: Paul Rhoads’ Cyclones pretty much have to sweep their first five games to have any shot at a bowl. After home games against Northern Iowa, Iowa and Kansas, and road trips to Toledo and Texas Tech, Iowa State enters a brutal stretch, facing TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma in a four-week stretch. Even if they run the table in those first five, the Clones will still have to steal a home win against Texas or Oklahoma State. As the son of two Cyclones, I hate to say it, but it doesn’t look promising.
(12) Virginia
2014 Record: 5-7
Last Bowl: 2011
Schedule Analysis: While UVA might be the most talented team on this list, they have the toughest non-conference schedule of any of the #R413 teams, and possibly in the entire country. To start the year, the Wahoos travel to UCLA, come home to play Notre Dame, have a breather against William & Mary, and then host Boise State. Their ACC schedule isn’t terrible – they miss FSU and Clemson and have Syracuse at home – but I just don’t see them recovering from that insane September.
(13) Wake Forest
2014 Record: 3-9
Last Bowl: 2011
Schedule Analysis: Five of the Deacs first six are winnable, but three of those are on the road (Syracuse, Army and Boston College). None of the last six appear winnable, with the possible exceptions being home tilts against NC State and Duke.
(14) Vanderbilt
2014 Record: 3-9
Last Bowl: 2013
Schedule Analysis: It’s not every day that a Conference USA team is favored on the road against an SEC team, but that’s the situation in Week 1 when Western Kentucky visits Vandy. Looking at the ‘Dores schedule, they might be favored three times – home against Austin Peay, at Middle Tennessee State and at Houston. That’s right, the Vandy AD thought it would be a good idea to only have 6 home games. Even in a weaker-than-normal SEC East, I just don’t see it.
(15) Kansas
2014 Record: 3-9
Last Bowl: 2008
Schedule Analysis: First year with a new coach, nine-game conference schedule, on the road against the only conference foe they might hope to beat (Iowa State). That sounds like a team that won’t threaten the 6-win mark.
So there you have it. We’ll update and re-rank this list throughout the season. We’ll also have one key #R413 game for you to pick each week at the end of our Over/Under game.
By the way, if you put a gun to my head right now and made me guess how many of these teams will make it to the 13th Game Promised Land, I’d say six.
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