PJP Over/Under Recap – Season Long Edition

Courtesy: The Journal Gazette

Courtesy: The Journal Gazette

We are back for the PJP Over/Under season long recap.  You might have forgotten, but back in August we posed 7 lines relating to the 2015 season.  If you were an optimist, you did well.


Nate Sudfeld touchdown passes – Over/Under 23.5 – Actual 24

We did a good job of setting the line one this one.[ref]We’ll take that accuracy when we luck into it.  As you’ll see, we weren’t always this good.[/ref]  It took 4 Old Oaken Bucket touchdown passes from Nate Sudfeld in addition to the 4 he had against Maryland. His senior performance helped the Hoosiers to a bowl game and gave the overs a victory.   Several factors required this big, late season performance in this pick. First of all, Sudfeld missed 1.5 games due to injury. Additionally, the Hoosiers leaned on their ground game early as IU totaled 7 rushing touchdowns in the first 2 games compared to just 2 touchdown passes.

Seven were correct.

Jordan Howard/Devine Redding Highlight yards/opportunity – Over/Under 5.2 – Actual 5.5

Jordan Howard and Devine Redding had 141 combined highlight “opportunities”, meaning a rush of 5+ yards. Of these, 93 were from Howard[ref]47% of his total carries.[/ref] and 48 were from Redding [ref]25% of his total carries.[/ref] When looking specifically at highlight yards[ref]Which essentially is the yards gained after the first 5.[/ref] per opportunity, Howard was at 4.8 and Redding pulled the overs ahead at 6.8. Each running back had 3 carries of 30+ yards. However, Howard’s went for 32, 35, and 37 and Redding’s went for 45, 57, and 66. Jordan Howard was a better total running back in 2015, but it is safe to say that Redding was the more explosive running back.

Six predicted IU’s main running backs would be at least somewhat explosive.

Receivers with more than 300 yards receiving – Over/Under 2.5 – Actual 3

Things were leaning towards the under on this one at the midway point of the season. Ricky Jones (who finished with 817 yards) reached 300 yards in the Western Kentucky game. Simmie Cobbs (914 yards) totaled it in the Ohio State game. However, Mitchell Paige (589 yards) was sitting on just 140 yards following the Penn State game. He was coming off a 3 game stretch of 10 yards, 11 yards, and 15 yards. Then he exploded for 126 yards against Rutgers and 99 against Michigan State to surpass the 300 yard mark. There were many questions surrounding the receivers coming into 2015 following a disappointing 2014 season. There won’t be heading into 2016 as these 3 players return, J-Shun Harris is healthy, and Camion Patrick becomes eligible.[ref]This doesn’t even include players like Dominique Booth, Isaac Griffith, or Nick Westbrook.[/ref]

Eight were bullish on the IU passing game.


Number of sacks for IU’s sack leader – Over/Under 5.5 – Actual 9

This one was decided at the midpoint of the season as Nick Mangieri had amassed 7 sacks through 6 games. While things would slow down for the IU pass rush during the meat of the Big Ten season, Mangieri topped off his season with 2 sacks against Purdue to end with 9 on the year. Darius Latham and Zack Shaw tied for 2nd on the team with 4 sacks each. Mangieri’s 9 sacks were the most by a Hoosier since Jammie Kirlew’s 10.5 in 2008.

Eight nailed this one.

Games where the opponent’s Explosive % is less than 10% – **FBS Only** – Over/Under 2.5 – Actual 4

Not what you would have expected as there were 4 games that the IU defense allowed an explosive rate.[ref]Defined on this site and a rush of 10+ yards or a pass of 20+ yards.[/ref] Those 4 games were Western Kentucky, Wake Forest, Penn State, and Purdue.[ref]Not coincidentally, Indiana won each of the games in which Nate Sudfeld also played.[/ref] There were only 11 designed rushes of 10+ yards in these games with the longest being 35. These 4 opponents had 14 pass plays of 20+ yards.

Of the other 8 games, Ohio State totaled the highest explosive percentage at 20%. On the season, Indiana allowed an explosive percentage of 12%.

Six were right.

Interceptions by true freshmen – Over/Under 2.5 – Actual 4

This one went to the overs in the Western Kentucky game as Jonathan Crawford had 2 big interceptions. This was following Jameel Cook’s huge pick 6 against Florida International. Crawford would add one more interception in the Michigan game to finish with a team leading 3 interceptions. It wasn’t a banner year for Indiana interceptions. As we’ve pointed out several times, no cornerback recording a pick this season. However, safeties Crawford and Cook showed flashes of promise interspersed through their freshmen growing pains.

Five were right, the lowest of all the picks.

Special Teams

IU touchdowns from special teams (including kick and punt returns, fake field goals, blocked kicks returned for TDs) – Over/Under 0.5 – Actual 2

Another one decided early in the season as Mitchell Paige returned a punt 91 yards for a touchdown against Western Kentucky. Just for fun, he also added a 51 yard punt return against Michigan. There were no kickoff returns for touchdowns, nor were any close as the season long was just 41 yards by Damon Graham.

All 10 were correct.

Over/Under Recap

It was a close contest as Steve, @hs5222, @mje_93, Alan V., thunderpup12, pbat, Josh, and Ryan C. all tied with 5 correct answers.

But it was Cyclone Cynergy who was the lone contestant with 6 victories.  Congrats!

Thanks to all who participated in this Over/Under as well as throughout the season.  We’ll be in contact with the winners about prizes sometime in early 2016.[ref]Someone needs to focus on starting to Christmas shop right now.[/ref]  We will be back next week for a new Over/Under – BOWL GAME EDITION.[ref]That was fun to type.[/ref]  Tell your friends!