PJP Over/Under Game – Duke

Courtesy: iuhoosiers.com

Courtesy: iuhoosiers.com

We’re back for the PJP Over/Under Game, bowl game edition.  If you’re unfamiliar with the rules, read this.

We are starting with a clean slate.  One week only.  Winner take all.  If you haven’t participated all season, now is the perfect opportunity to dip your feet in the water.

Send us an email at puntjohnpunt@gmail.com, tweet us @puntjohnpunt or post a comment with your picks. A simple chain of O’s and U’s will do.

For the bowl week edition, we’re going with “play” 13 quick hit questions.  Let’s get to it.

1. Nate Sudfeld passing yards – Over/Under 324.5

Nate Sudfeld is 17th in the nation in passing yards per game at 289.  Duke is 74th in the nation at 229 yards per game but that includes games against option teams Georgia Tech and Army.  Take those opponents out and Duke is up to 255 yards per game which includes 537 passing yards to North Carolina and former IU offensive coordinator Seth Littrell.  Sudfeld’s career high is 464 yards against Rutgers this season.

2. Sacks allowed by Indiana – Over/Under .5

Indiana is tied for 8th in the FBS in sacks allowed at just 13.  Meanwhile, Duke comes in ranked 108th at just 17 sacks on the season.  Six of these sacks occurred against Tulane and N.C. Central.  Jeremy Cash leads Duke with 2.5 sacks on the year, but will miss the bowl game.

3. Indiana players with 10+ rushing yards – Over/Under 3.5

Against Purdue, Indiana had 5 players with 10 or more rushing yards.  Devine Redding led the way with 144 yards.  Ricky Brookins (64 yards), Andrew Wilson (52 yards), Mike Majette (31 yards), and Nate Sudfeld (13 yards) also reached this low mark.

4. Indiana receivers with 75+ yards – Over/Under 1.5

I’d love to see Brandon Knight over 75 yards, but sadly I think he’ll fall short.  Simmie Cobbs, Ricky Jones, and Mitchell Paige are the likeliest candidates.

5. Longest Indiana pass – Over/Under 44.5

Duke has allowed 24 passes of 30+ yards[ref]For reference, the Hoosiers have only allowed 22.[/ref] and 10 of 40+ yards.  Indiana has 22 passes of 30+ yards, but only 9 of 40+ yards.  Against Purdue, Sudfeld’s longest pass was 72 yards to Andre Booker, but only 1 other pass play went for over 30.

6. Duke success rate on standard downs – Over/Under 46.5%

Duke ranks 106th in the nation in standard down[ref]First downs, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, and fourth-and-4 or fewer. These are the downs in which the offense could conceivably either run or pass and therefore has an overall advantage over the defense. [/ref] success rate at 43.5%.  Indiana counters with a defense ranking 88th at 48.7%.  The Blue Devils have been able to overcome their standard down struggles by being slightly above average on passing downs.

7. Duke passes of 20+ yards – Over/Under 3.5

On the season, Duke has 35 passes of 20+ yards.  This is in 469 pass attempts, a rate of roughly 7.5%.  Indiana has allowed 56 passes of 20+ yards in 511 attempts.  This is a rate of about 11%.

8.  4th quarter points by Duke– Over/Under 9.5

The Blue Devils average 8 points per 4th quarter in FBS games.  Indiana’s 4th quarter struggles have been noted.  They are averaging 11.9 points allowed in the final period in FBS games.  However, in their last 3 games, the Hoosiers have averaged just 6 points per 4th quarter.

9.  Indiana havoc rate – Over/Under 14.0%

Indiana’s defense is right at the national average of 16.5% in havoc rate.[ref]The percentage of plays in which a defense either recorded a tackle for loss, forced a fumble, or defensed a pass (intercepted or broken up).[/ref]  Duke ranks 5th in the nation in TFL allowed at 50, 34rd in fumbles at 15, and 17th in interceptions lost with 7.

10. Longest Indiana kickoff return – Over/Under 23.5

Indiana ranks 111th with just 3 kickoff returns of 30+ yards.   The Hoosiers longest return is 41 yards by Damon Graham against Rutgers.  Duke’s special teams allows an average of 19.8 yards per return.  They have allowed just 4 returns of 30 or more yards.

11.  Griffin Oakes XPs made minus field goals made– Over/Under 2.5

This one boils down to how well Indiana does when their offense reaches the redzone.  On the season, Oakes has made 48 extra points and 22 field goals.

12. Largest lead for either team – Over/Under 13.5

Duke’s largest lead was 55 to North Carolina Central.  Their largest deficit was 35 to UNC.  Indiana’s largest lead was 29 to Rutgers and their largest deficit was 22 to Penn State.

13. Indiana (-7.5) vs. Duke

Vegas has Indiana as a 2 point favorite in this contest.  We are more generous here so we’ll give Duke 7.5 instead.  You are picking Indiana (-7.5) or Duke (+7.5).