PJP Over/Under Game – Rutgers

Courtesy: Rob Foldy

Courtesy: Rob Foldy

We are back for another slew of over/under questions.  Let’s get into it.

1. Largest Indiana lead – Over/Under 21.5

The Hoosiers somehow blew a 25 point lead against Rutgers last season.  It was terrible.  This year’s Indiana team appears to be comparable to last year’s IU team, but Rutgers is worse.  That’s saying something considering they finished 4-8 and their coach was fired.  Building Rutgers won’t happen overnight, but Chris Ash’s team is struggling.  They’ve been outscored 198-46 in Big Ten play and are 2-6 overall.  Initial Vegas spreads in this game have been about 14 points.

2. Combined Diamont/Natee rushing yards – Over/Under 149.5

Behind Devine Redding’s 130 rushing yards, Tyler Natee and Zander Diamont both topped 100 rushing yards.  The Natee/Diamont pairing combined for 215 rushing yards.  Obviously it caught Maryland off-guard as the duo rolled up 100 rushing yards in their first 10 attempts.  Then they hit a lull where they gained just 33 yards on 12 attempts, an average of 2.75.  Finally, they iced the game with 82 rushing yards in their final 7 attempts including the 52 yard run by Diamont.

Rutgers ranks 123rd in rush defense allowing 261 rushing yards per game.  It’s clear Indiana should be able to run on Rutgers.  The question in this over/under might be how many carries the duo receives.

3. Nick Wesbrook receiving yards minus Ricky Jones receiving yards – Over/Under 0.5

It was my understanding that there would be no math.

Basically you are choosing whether Westbrook (over) or Jones (under) has more receiving yards.[ref]Ties goes to Westbrook[/ref]  Westbrook and Jones rank 39th and 41st, respectively, in receiving yards.  Westbrook is averaging 78.5 yards per game, 17.4 yards per catch, 10.4 yards per target, and has a 60% catch rate.  Jones is averaging 77.0 yards per game, 17.6 yards per catch, 10.1 yards per target, and has a 57% catch rate.  Each receiver has out-gained the other in 4 games.

4. Rutgers passing yards per attempt – Over/Under 6.49

As a team, Rutgers is averaging 5.0 passing yards per attempt, worst in the nation.  That’s what happens when you combine a 47.5% completion percentage with a lack of explosiveness. Giovanni Rescigno was named the starting QB two games ago and he has a responded with 6.1 passing yards per attempt.  On the season, Indiana is allowing 6.6 passing yards per attempt.[ref]IU allowed 7.4 yards per attempt in 2015.[/ref]  That ranks 36th nationally.  IU has allowed under 6.49 passing yards per attempt in 3 games this year.[ref]FIU, Ohio State, Northwestern[/ref]

5. Rutgers turnovers lost – Over/Under 2.5

Rutgers is bad at a lot of things, another of which is turnovers.  Rutgers has lost 15 of them in 8 games, 10 by fumble and 5 by interception.  While Football Study Hall has written that they’ve been slightly unlucky, 15 turnovers is still a lot.  Indiana has forced 13 turnovers this year which Football Study Hall stated has been slightly unlucky.[ref]Based on fumble recovery rates and passes broken up.[/ref]

6. Indiana tackles for loss – Over / Under 9.5

Indiana had been rather pedestrian in this category through the first 6 weeks of the season. However, the Hoosiers were in the backfield more the last 2 games, totaling 19 tackles for loss.  IU has 45 on the year to rank 84th.  As expected, Tegray Scales leads Indiana with 10 TFLs.  Rutgers has allowed 58 TFLs to rank 111th.

7. Total Indiana punt return yards – 22.5

The Hoosiers have averaged 9.7 yards per punt return and 18.1 return yards per game.  Mitchell Paige has 10 of the 15 returns this season with Rashard Fant and Chase Dutra handling the other 5.  Each has averaged 9+ yards per return.  Because of their punt frequency[ref]Hey, it’s better than turning it over.[/ref] Rutgers has allowed 24.6 punt return yards per game.  The Scarlet Knights face the second most returns per game at 3.  They are allowing 8.2 yards per return.

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Billy