PJP Over/Under Game – Penn State

Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Indiana now moves back to being the underdog.  While awaiting this weekend’s matchup, we have another slew of questions coming your way.

1. Indiana passes of 20+ yards – Over/Under 2.5

Indiana has 38 passes of 20+ yards this season, good for 23rd in the nation.  The Hoosiers rank 31st nationally in passing isoPPP.  For all of Richard Lagow’s interception and accuracy issues, the Hoosiers have been able to pick up major yards through the air.  Of IU’s 38 passes of 20+ yards, 36 were thrown by Lagow.  In Big Ten games, IU is averaging 4.2 passes of 20+.  Meanwhile, Penn State has allowed the fewest passes of 20+ yards in the nation with 15.  The Nittany Lions are 19th in isoPPP.  The Hoosiers will need big pass plays to pull off the upset this weekend, but it certainly won’t be easy.

2. Penn State defensive stuff rate – Over/Under 22.5%

Stuff rate is the percentage of rushes gaining 0 or fewer yards.  Penn State stuffs opponents 23.7% of the time.  The national average is 18.7%.  Indiana has been stuffed on 21% of their rushes which is 98th nationally.  Devine Redding has been stuffed on 20% of his rushes.  Tyler Natee is at 16%, lowest on the team among RBs.

3. Most total passing yards on any 5 consecutive Richard Lagow pass attempts– Over/Under 69.5

There is no carry over from the Rutgers game, but what we are looking for here is the most passing yards that Richard Lagow can put together during any 5 consecutive attempts. His 2016 high is 133 against Michigan State. That stretch included gains of 57, 8, 6, 40, and 22. The 22 yarder was a touchdown that tied the score after the PAT. He has had 7 games in which he tallied 70+ yards on 5 consecutive plays. He achieved the task in all but the Northwestern and Maryland games.

4. Saquon Barkley rushing yards – Over/Under 119.5

The sophomore is probably the most talented running back that Indiana has faced this year.  He’s surpassed 150 yards in 3 of his last 4 games.  He’s averaging 8.3 yards per carry over that period.  On the year he is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 117 yards per game.  He runs for 5+ yards on 40% of his runs.  While Indiana has shown some vulnerabilty the last couple games with rushes allowed of 66 and 30 yards, the Hoosiers have performed quite well against the rush.  IU is allowing less than 4 yards per carry which is a huge improvement compared to last year’s 5.2.

5. Penn State third down conversion percentage – Over/Under 34.0%

The Nittany Lions have struggled on 3rd down thus far.  They are converting on just 28% of 3rd downs, 125th nationally.  Indiana, on the other hand, has been fantastic defensively on 3rd downs this year.  Yes, it is heavily influenced by the 6% conversion rate allowed against Rutgers, but IU has only allowed a conversion on 31% of 3rd downs.  That is 14th nationally, a huge improvement over the 42% from 2015.  Even excluding the Rutgers game, IU has allowed a 3rd down conversion just 35% of the time which would rank 28th.

6. Mike Gesicki receiving yards – Over / Under 42.5

While Indiana has generated 67 receiving yards from tight ends this entire year, Penn State’s Mike Gesicki is 2nd on his team with 411 receiving yards.  He is 2nd in the Big Ten in receiving yards by a tight end, just 10 behind Michigan’s Jake Butt.

7. Indiana points scored from field goals and extra points – Over/Under 6.5

On the season Indiana has 56 points from field goals and extra points, all from Griffin Oakes.  However, Oakes has been in a major funk with 2 field goals blocked, 1 field goal missed, and 1 extra point missed against Rutgers.  He has only made 55% of his field goals this year.  He had reached 6 points in 4 games, but has only surpassed it twice.  Penn State has allowed 15 field goal attempts this year with opponents making 11.

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Billy