PJP Over/Under Recap – Michigan State

It was a game with an invisible rushing attack, several missed opportunities, and one crushing jet sweep.  A game that was full of hype, but ended up one that we’d much rather forget.  And hopefully one that Indiana forgets as attention turns to a must-win matchup on the road at Rutgers.  The Hoosiers opened as a 14 point favorite.

1. Indiana points per scoring opportunity – Over/Under 4.09 – Actual: 3.5

A game of missed opportunities.  The Hoosiers generated 6 scoring opportunities to Michigan State’s 4, but failed to capitalize.[ref]For reference, a scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent’s 40 (or scores from outside the 40).[/ref]  Indiana’s first scoring opportunity came on their second drive, 1st and 10 from the MSU 29.  Peyton Ramsey’s pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.  A particularly painful missed opportunity.

Down 14-0, midway through the 2nd quarter, Tom Allen went for it on 4th and 1 from the MSU 18.  I don’t fault the call to go for it, but unfortunately Scott was stopped for no gain.

Indiana would later add 4 more scoring opportunities, converting 2 field goals and 2 touchdowns including a 2-point conversion.  But it wouldn’t be enough as Michigan State scored a touchdown on all 4 of their opportunities.

2. Indiana Success Rate – Over/Under 45.5% – Actual: 35%

The Hoosiers converted a 43% success rate on pass plays.  On actual passes, Ramsey’s success rate was 50% including 71% on attempts to Whop Philyor and 67% to J-Shun Harris.  Unfortunately Ramsey was under pressure frequently with just 25% of his scrambles being deemed successful and also being sacked 4 times.  That was bad, but their running game was even more dismal, recording just an 11% success rate.  For those keeping track at home, that isn’t good.  After a dominating start to the season, freshman Stevie Scott had just 1 successful rush on 11 carries.  It occurred on his first carry, a 5-yard run on 1st and 10.  After that he recorded 13 rushing yards on 10 carries including a 7-yard run on 3rd and 16.

3. LJ Scott rushes of 10+ yards – Over/Under 1.5 – Actual: 0

Scott dressed and participated in warmups, but did not play in this one as a result of an injury suffered 2 weeks ago against Arizona State.  La’Darius Jefferson and Connor Heyward each had a long rush of just 6 yards.  Jalen Nailor’s 75 rush was the dagger for IU and was the only rush, other than a rush by Brian Lewerke that Indiana allowed to go for 10+ yards.

4. Brian Lewerke passing yards – Over/Under 214.5 – Actual: 213

It’s hard to get much closer than this.  Lewerke went 14 of 25 for 213 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.  He probably would have gone over 213 yards but Michigan State’s 21 fourth quarter plays consisted of 14 rushes, 3 kneels, and just 4 pass attempts.  Indiana is allowing 5.3 yards per pass attempt on the season, ranking 21st nationally.

5. Longest Reese Taylor kickoff return – Over/Under 29.5 – Actual: 0

There were no kickoff returns for the Hoosiers in this one.

6. Indiana winning margin – Over/Under 1.5 – Actual: MSU – 7

The Hoosiers never led in this one, falling in their conference opener.  It puts more pressure on the Hoosiers in games against Iowa, Minnesota, Maryland, and Purdue.

Current Standings

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