PJP Over/Under Recap – Michigan

Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Indiana made it a game for most of 60 minutes, made a bunch of Michigan fans mad on Twitter, and predictably couldn’t hold onto the improbable victory.  Let’s recap!

1. Indiana non-garbage passing yards per attempt – Over/Under 5.99 – Actual: 5.57

There was no non-garbage time in this one[ref]Except for the 2 Michigan kneel downs[/ref] as the Hoosiers kept it close until the end.  Despite that, the passing game struggled and finished at just 5.57 yards per attempt.  That’s the second lowest mark of the season, behind only the Minnesota game.  When Indiana did complete a pass, it was generally for a big gain.  Their 12.2 yard per catch mark was third best of the season.  However, Ramsey completed just 46% of his passes, thus hurting his YPA average.  Up next is a Purdue defense that is 70th in YPA allowed and 81st in pass defense S&P+.

2. Indiana non-garbage success rate  – Over/Under 35% – Actual: 34.6%

This one was incredibly close, coming down to the final Indiana play!  The Hoosiers went into halftime with a 42% success rate but stumbled to just a 28% average in the second half.  After Indiana’s final first down, a 15-yard pass to Luke Timian on third down, IU was sitting at 37%.  But after 4 straight unsuccessful plays to end the game, the Hoosiers fell just below out 35% mark.  On the day, Indiana had a 39% success rate on rushes and a 30% rate on passes.

3. Michigan average third down distance – Over/Under 6.5 – Actual: 5.9

Michigan again generally found themselves in a favorable third down distance at just 5.9.  In part because of that, they converted 7 third downs.  The 47% rate is lower than their season-average of 50%, but still above average overall.  The Wolverines completed just 2 of 7 third downs of 3rd and 8 or more.  However, on 3rd and 4 or 5 Michigan covered 3 of 5 and 2 of 3 on 3rd and 2.  Simply put, the less distance Michigan needed to covert a 3rd down, they more likely they were to convert it.  The Wolverines eventually scored points on 6 of 7 drives the converted.

4. Michigan offensive stuff rate – Over/Under 17.1% – Actual: 8.3%

Michigan lost yards on rushes on just 2 carries out of 48.  They had no gains on just 2 of 48 carries.  Suffice to say, Indiana failed to generate pressure into the Michigan backfield.  The 8.3% stuff rate was the 2nd worst mark of the season, only behind the Minnesota game.  The forward momentum by the Michigan offense helped set up those aforementioned short third down distances.  Up next is a Purdue team that ranks 55th nationally in offensive stuff rate at 18.3%.

5. Indiana non-game-winning field goal attempts on 4th and 4 or fewer  – Over/Under 0.5 – Actual: 0

Indiana saw a 4th and 3 from the Michigan 39 on their opening drive.  While that was probably pushing Logan Justus’s distance, even if it was 10 yards closer to the end zone, going for it was the right move.  Field goals weren’t going to beat Michigan.  Even though Peyton Ramsey’s pass was intercepted, Sam Hinkle says Trust the Process.  Justus did attempt and make two field goals later in the game.  The first was on a 4th and 6 and the second on a 4th and 5.  The Hoosiers also showed their aggressiveness later with a fake punt.  Indiana isn’t quite the underdog against Purdue that they were against Michigan, but it will still behoove them to be somewhat aggressive.

6. Michigan winning margin – Over/Under 27.5 – Actual: 11

Michigan had 11 non-kneel down drives.  They generated 9 scoring opportunities and scored on 8 of their drives.  The only non-score came at the end of the half with the asset from a well-placed Dameon Willis foot.  With that number of scoring opportunities, Indiana was a little fortunate to only lose by 11.  Bill Connelly’s adjusted scoring margin had Michigan winning by 15.6.  Either way, Indiana hits the under and heads home to face Purdue in the Bucket battle for a bowl.

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