PJP Over/Under Game – Connecticut

Courtesy: Indiana Daily Student

The Hoosiers look to rebound from their beatdown against Ohio State with a game against hapless Connecticut.  If there was ever a game to build the team’s confidence prior to Michigan State, it’s this one.

1. Indiana first down success rate in non-garbage time – Over/Under 47.0%

A year after posting a 52% first-down success rate1 in non-garbage time against the Buckeyes, Indiana posted just a 31% mark in the first half against Ohio State.  That non-garbage mark is the lowest since the Michigan game last year and the fourth worst mark since the start of the 2017 season.  The opponent this week isn’t Ohio State so it stands to reason Indiana will get going more on offense.  The Hoosiers averaged 41% in 2017 and 44% last year on first down.

2. Nick Westbrook targets – Over/Under 5.5

Westbrook has just 13 targets on the season, getting 6 in the opener and 7 against Ohio State.  He caught 3 in each of those games and has 134 receiving yards on the season.  He’s currently fourth on the team in targets and receiving yards behind Whop Philyor, Peyton Hendershot, and Donavan Hale.

3. Indiana tight end receiving yards – Over/Under 49.5

Indiana had 232 receiving yards by tight ends in 2018.  The Hoosiers already have 215 this year led by Peyton Hendershot with 191.  Hendershot will play on Saturday although how much is probably tied to the competitiveness of the game.  Freshman T.J. Ivy would be the next man up as a primary pass-catcher, but he missed the Ohio State game with an injury.  Matt Bjorson is the other backup tight end and has 4 targets on the year without a reception.

4. Connecticut yards per play in non-garbage time – Over/Under 4.39

Connecticut recorded 4.84 yards per play in their win against Wagner and 4.75 in their loss to Illinois.  In non-garbage time Indiana has allowed 4.9 against Ball State and 8.2 against Ohio State.  They allowed 2.1 in the game against Eastern Illinois which, as an FCS opponent, counts entirely as garbage time for us.  On the season, Connecticut is 112th nationally in yards per play.

5. Connecticut rushing yards excluding sacks – Over/Under 70.5

Excluding sacks, Connecticut rushed 24 times for 40 yards in their last game against Illinois.  In Indiana’s last game, the Hoosiers allowed 2 single rushes of 40+ yards.  If Indiana can shore up their tackling issues, they should be in line to shut down the UConn rushing game.

6. Indiana winning margin – Over/Under 29.5

Vegas has Indiana as a 27 point favorite.  Bill Connelly at ESPN has Indiana as a 32.2 point favorite.

If you are picking the over, you are picking Indiana to win by 30+ points.  If you are picking the under, you are picking Indiana to lose or win by 29 points or fewer.

This over/under is worth 2 points.

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  1. 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

Billy