PJP Over/Under Recap – Connecticut

Courtesy: Alex Deryn, IDS News

Another week, another game ending in garbage time.  There wasn’t a ton to glean from the past game except Connecticut is really bad.  But we can still take a stroll down over/under lane.

1. Indiana first down success rate in non-garbage time – Over/Under 47.0% – Actual: 33%

The Hoosiers again struggled somewhat on first down, but overcome it with a dominant effort on 2nd and 3rd downs against the overmatched Connecticut defense.  Indiana had a success rate on first down of just 33% and a combined 68% success rate on second and third downs.  Where Indiana really struggled was rushing the ball on first down.  The Hoosiers had just a 15% success rate rushing 13 times for a total of 32 yards.  Compare that to second and third downs where Indiana had a rushing success rate of 75%, rushing 8 times for 58 yards.  When Indiana did pass on first down, it was usually good as they recorded a 63% success rate.

2. Nick Westbrook targets – Over/Under 5.5 – Actual: 2

Westbrook’s quiet season continues as he saw just 2 targets on the day which was tied for 5th on the team.  He’ll probably see a slight uptick when Michael Penix returns but the slim goal of him becoming Indiana’s all-time leading receiver has probably vanished.

3. Indiana tight end receiving yards – Over/Under 49.5 – Actual: 49

Peyton Hendershot received Indiana’s first target on the day although the 10 yard gain ended in a fumble.  If you exclude the terrible Ramsey interception in which it appeared he was targeting Hendershot, the tight end ended up catching all 5 of his targets for 43 yards.  Matt Bjorson added a 6 yard reception as the Hoosiers continue to utilize the tight end position.  Peyton Hendershot is currently 5th nationally in receiving yards by a tight end.

4. Connecticut yards per play in non-garbage time – Over/Under 4.39 – Actual: 2.92

It was a dominating performance by the Indiana defense.  The 2.92 yards per play in non-garbage time is the lowest by an IU defense in a FBS game since at least 2013.  Considering the defenses prior to 2012, I’m guessing we’d have to go back a ways.  Indiana is currently 24th nationally in yards per play allowed at 4.53.  Their next opponent, Michigan State, is 3rd at 3.61.

5. Connecticut rushing yards excluding sacks – Over/Under 70.5 – Actual: 56

The Huskies struggled both rushing and passing averaged 2.8 yards per play in each once sacks are adjusted as pass plays. On the ground, Connecticut had just 56 yards on 20 rushes.  The Hoosiers now rank 57th in rushing yards per play allowed.

6. Indiana winning margin – Over/Under 29.5 – Actual: 35

After a bit of a slow start, the Hoosiers pulled away big in this one as UConn never got anything going.  And after 4 relatively uncompetitive opponents to start the season, the Hoosiers will head into conference play looking to build on their as-expected 3-1 start.

This over/under is worth 2 points.

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Billy