PJP Over/Under Recap – Michigan

The 10 stands for 10th best team in the nation

Outside some long plays allowed, Indiana dominated this one. They didn’t allow anything on the ground. They were +2 in the turnover battle. Michael Penix looked poised and calm all afternoon. It was a glorious, glorious day in Bloomington.

1. Indiana 1st quarter points – Over/Under 6.5 –  Actual: 14

The Hoosiers had 3 first quarter drives with the first and third ending in a touchdown. The 14 points scored in the first quarter were the most by Indiana since the Penn State game last year. The second touchdown, in particular, set the tone that Indiana wouldn’t go away. Michigan had just scored a touchdown on a 4-play drive to tie the game. Once IU scored on a 24-yard pass to Ty Fryfogle (on a free play), the Hoosiers never trailed.

2. Indiana points per scoring opportunity – Over/Under 4.99 – Actual: 6.33

The Hoosiers had 6 scoring opportunities and scored a touchdown on 5 of them. The other came when Indiana had a 1st and 10 at the Michigan 40 but only gained 5 yards to set up 4th and 5. That’s a situation where a lot of teams are going to end up going for it simply because their drive stalled in no man’s land. But most teams don’t have Charles Campbell who has been locked in. Campbell came on and made a 52-yard field goal to put Indiana up 10. Indiana is simply finishing drives at an elite level this year.

3. Indiana 3rd down conversion rate – Over/Under 44.99% – Actual: 53%

The box score said 50%, but I assume it is including the final 3rd down where Indiana failed to convert because they were kneeling in a victory formation. Maybe I’m wrong but either way, the Overs win here. Part of the success on 3rd down came as a result of the work on 1st and 2nd downs. Indiana’s averaged distance to go on their 17 3rd downs was 4.5. Much better than the 8.8 against Penn State and 9.4 against Rutgers. Indiana had a 3rd and short on 5 occasions and converted on 3 of them. On the 10 3rd and medium plays, Indiana passed on 9 of them, converting 4. In fact, the only rush outside of the 3rd and short situations came on Indiana’s final clock-killing drive where Stevie Scott got 4 yards on 3rd and 3.

4. Indiana turnovers recovered – Over/Under 1.5 – Actual: 2

This one really should have been 2 with an interception and forced fumble as Tiawan Mullen forced a fumble of Joe Milton that the Hoosiers recovered. Unfortunately the officials didn’t see it the same way so it was overturned. It ultimately didn’t matter as Devon Matthews intercepted Milton 4 plays later to essentially seal the game. Jaylin Williams also had an interception earlier in the 4th quarter, the first thrown by Milton this year.

5. Michigan 20+ yard plays – Over/Under 4.5 – Actual: 9

If there was one thing that kept Michigan in this one, it was big plays. They couldn’t do anything in their running game, but it was their 9 big passing plays that kept the game somewhat in suspense early in the 4th quarter. Those 9 passing plays accounted for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ronnie Bell was the main culprit with 4 plays including a 52-yard pass and a 21-yard touchdown reception. Other than those 9 passing plays, Michigan’s other 25 pass attempts accounted for 99 yards and 2 interceptions. It was boom or bust for the Wolverine offense. Obviously if you’re Kane Wommack, that is way more than you want to allow in a game, but when coupled with the otherwise stifling Indiana defense, it worked out.

6. Indiana’s AP ranking on Sunday – Over/Under 10.5 – Actual: 10

A 17-point victory over then #23 Michigan was enough to push Indiana ahead of Oregon in the polls. But with Georgia getting thumped by Florida and Wisconsin being idle with a Covid outbreak, the Hoosiers also passed both of those teams to reach the top 10 for the first time since 1969.

This over/under is worth double.

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