PJP Over/Under Game – Michigan State

Indiana heads to East Lansing, the site of Michael Penix’s only loss as a starter at Indiana. The winner gets a container to spit into. If that doesn’t get you excited just rewatch the end of the Penn State game.

1. Most consecutive Michael Penix completions – Over/Under 7.5

A year ago against the Spartans, Michael Penix completed a school-record 20 consecutive completions. Most were an extension of the running game with only 2 traveling more than 10 yards downfield. The average depth of target was just 1.55, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t successful. Indiana gained 188 yards, an average of 9.4 per target which is well above Penix’s career average. Outside his record-setting mark, his longest streak of consecutive completions is 14 coming at the end of the Rutgers game into the first 5 passes of the Michigan game.

2. Whop Philyor catches – Over/Under 7.5

Philyor set his career high in catches with 14 against Michigan State last year. He would later tie that mark with another 14 against Nebraska. A week ago against Michigan, he set a career high with 21 targets, catching 11 of them. He is tied for 19th nationally at 7 catches per game. The most catches to a receiver that Michigan State has allowed this year is 7. Philyor also has 7 career games catching 8+ passes which includes a 13 catch, 148 yard, 1 TD game against Michigan State in 2018. He’s gone back-to-back with big games against the Spartans, but Mark Dantonio’s defensive system had some susceptibility to the bubble screen and giving up yards to good slot receivers. We’ll see on Saturday if Mel Tucker’s system is a Whop-friendly.

3. Jaylin Williams interceptions – Over/Under 0.5

It’s a tall order to request an interception from Jaylin Williams in a single game. It’s simply not likely. Yet, he’s intercepted a pass in all 3 games this year so who’s to say he won’t do it again. The last time a Hoosier had 4+interceptions in a year was Jonathan Crawford in 2015. He only has 1 pass break-up this year which would seemingly indicate a couple things. He’s been a little lucky with a 75% interception to passes defensed percentage. Of the 51 players with 3+ interceptions last year, only 6 had a percentage of 75% or higher. But he’s also shown an ability to position himself and then complete the interception. So many times in the past Indiana has had defenders that could make a play, but couldn’t hold on to make the interception. So far Jaylin Williams has done that.

4. Michigan State non-garbage time rushing yards per carry excluding sacks – Over/Under 1.5

The Spartans are worst nationally in rushing yards per carry excluding sacks at 2.67. Indiana is second to last at 2.91 but we’ll ignore that for now…

The Indiana defense is 47th nationally allowing 4.7 ypc excluding sacks, but allowed just 1.8 against Michigan last week. Freshman Jordon Simmons has led Michigan State in rushing this far with 132 yards. He’s been primarily backed up by Connor Heyward. Interestingly, Elijah Collins who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards last year, has played in all 3 games but gained just 17 yards on 16 carries.

5. Largest Michigan State lead – Over/Under 3.5

The Hoosiers never trailed against Michigan. The largest deficit Indiana faced against Rutgers was 7 in the first quarter. Their largest deficit all year came late in the Penn State game after the Nittany Lions scored their ill-advised touchdown. That put Indiana down 8 and we all know what happened then. A year ago against Michigan State, the Hoosiers largest deficit was 7 in a back-and-forth game until the Spartans scored a touchdown on a fumble recovery on the final play of the game to extend the lead to 9. The only game Michigan State has led this year was against Michigan with their largest lead being 10.

6. Indiana margin of victory – Over/Under 10.5

Vegas has Indiana as a 7.5 point favorite.  Meanwhile, Bill Connelly at ESPN also has Indiana as a 7.5 point favorite. But given that we’re an IU site and we’re IU fans, we’ll be generous to our Spittoon buddies.

If you are picking the over, you are picking Indiana to win by 11+ points.  If you are picking the under, you are picking Michigan State to win or lose by 10 or fewer.

This over/under is worth double.

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Billy