PJP Over/Under Recap – Michigan State

Indiana took care of business against Michigan State meaning the Hoosiers now hold active winning streaks (if you count one game a streak…work with me here) against 9 of the 13 Big Ten opponents. It’s actually 10 of 14 if you include the University of Chicago, a former conference foe who last played the Hoosiers in 1936 with IU coming out on top 20-7. Up next, Indiana can add another team to the list with an upset win at Ohio State.

1. Most consecutive Michael Penix completions – Over/Under 7.5 – Actual: 7

Penix was 25 of 38 for 320 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He started the game 8 of 9 for 98 yards with the one incompletion coming on an interception. His longest streak of consecutive completions came in the second quarter over a span of 3 drives. He was 7 for 7 for 110 yards and a touchdown which came on the 65-yarder to Ty Fryfogle.

2. Whop Philyor catches – Over/Under 7.5 – Actual: 3

Ty Fryfogle was the main receiver in this game, seeing 15 passes from Michael Penix. Whop Philyor was second on the team in targets, but with only 6. He caught 3 of them for 35 yards. On the season, Fryfogle and Philyor both have 24 catches. Philyor leads the team in targets with 43 and Fryfogle is right behind him with 42. The difference so far is Fryfogle’s big plays with 33% of his catches and 19% of his targets going for 20+ yards compared to 17% catches and 9% targets for Philyor. That’s how you end up with 424 receiving yards for Fryfogle compared to just 287 for Philyor. Both are valuable pieces of Indiana’s offense.

 

3. Jaylin Williams interceptions – Over/Under 0.5 – Actual: 0

Williams finally didn’t have an interception. Hopefully he’s just saving them for this Saturday…

Instead, Tiawan Mullen had his first career interception and then he liked it so much that he did it again. In the 4th quarter, Reese Taylor, the other Indiana cornerback, added a pick that he nearly turned into a touchdown but was tackled at the Michigan State 9. The Hoosiers lead the nation in interceptions per game at 2.5. Looking ahead, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields has thrown 3 interceptions…in his career.

4. Michigan State non-garbage time rushing yards per carry excluding sacks – Over/Under 1.5 – Actual: 6

The first half is considered non-garbage time for our purposes. In that, Michigan State ran 9 times for 54 yards including a 38-yard run. That run was Michigan State’s longest play of the day. Taking out that long run and Indiana held MSU to 16 rushing yards on 8 carries. On the year, Indiana is allowing 4.6 yards per rush in non-garbage time and just a 35% success rate. That success rate is their best mark in at least the last 7 years and only the 2016 team with Tegray Scales and Marcus Oliver allowed a lower yards per carry mark (4.5).

5. Largest Michigan State lead – Over/Under 3.5 – Actual: 0

Another game, another 60 minutes of Indiana not trailing. Other than 0-0 to start the game, the score was never tied. The schedule does get tougher down the stretch with games against Ohio State and Wisconsin, but really not much would surprise you with the way Indiana is capable of playing.

6. Indiana margin of victory – Over/Under 10.5

Indiana easily reached both our spread as well as the Vegas spread. Up next is an Ohio State team that opened as a 3 touchdown favorite in Columbus.

This over/under is worth double.

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Billy