PJP Over/Under Recap – 2020 Season

We’re back to wrap up the 2020 PJP Over/Under game. Thanks to all who participated.

1. Michael Penix passing yards per attempt – Over/Under 8.49 – Actual: 7.5

Penix came into the 2020 season with a career 8.31 passing yards per attempt, but posted just a 7.5 YPA in his shortened 2020 season. His season was bookended by two down performances. In the opener against Penn State and his final contest against Maryland, he combined to average just 4.6 YPA as the offense struggled in both games. It was the middle stretch of 4 games that had Hoosier fans salivating. He averaged 8.43 YPA and scored 13 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. Hopefully Penix can fully recover for the 2021 season and is able to put together the complete and dominant season he is capable of.

2. Stevie Scott highlight yards per opportunity – Over/Under 7.0 – Actual: 3.6

Indiana’s running backs as a whole struggled to rush the ball. Their success rate was just 38%, slightly under where they’ve been against Power 5 competition over the last 8 years that we have data for. But where Indiana backs really struggled was generating big plays. Their 9% explosive rushing rate was the second lowest mark since 2013. The highlight yards per opportunity average of 3.8 was the lowest over that period. Looking at both those metrics indicates that Indiana didn’t generate big plays often and when they did, the big rushes were on the lowest end of the spectrum. As the lead running back, much of that falls onto Stevie Scott. His longest rush of the year was just 22 yards, one of just 2 rushes over 20 yards. Sampson James wasn’t any better in his limited time. Tim Baldwin had the best production per carry, but that was primarily against Maryland’s generous defense. Indiana needs more production from their backs in 2021 to take another step on offense.

3. Indiana sacks per game – Over/Under 2.34 – Actual: 3.13

The Hoosiers finished the 2020 season 14th nationally in sacks per game at 3.13. Much of it had to do with scheme and play calling from former defensive coordinator Kane Wommack as well as execution from the players. Micah McFadden led the team with 6 sacks and 12 players recorded a sack. Indiana must replace Wommack, but much of the defense returns. Other than Jerome Johnson and Jamar Johnson’s departures, IU returns 80% of their sack production in 2021.

4. Tiawan Mullen passes defensed per game – Over/Under 1.24 – Actual: 0.875

Mullen had fewer passes defensed per game in 2020, but recorded his 1st, 2nd, and 3rd career interceptions, including a pair in the Michigan State game. He was also active as a pass rusher with 3.5 sacks including a forced fumble against Wisconsin. Mullen set a high bar for himself after a stellar freshman campaign. It’s safe to say that he cleared it.

5. Charles Campbell made field goal percentage – Over/Under 81.99% – Actual: 90.9%

Campbell was as advertised for Indiana, hitting 10 of 11 field goals. He was 3 of 3 for 50+ yards including a long of 53. His ability to hit that long field goal gives Indiana an advantage over a lot of teams if a drive stalls out around the 35.

6. Indiana regular season wins – Over/Under 5.5 – Actual: 6

Indiana had 2 regular season games cancelled and still hit the over! They beat Penn State and Michigan and took Ohio State to the end. It was a magical season that is hopefully a harbinger of things to come.

This over/under is worth double.

Congrats to jrsterner for the close victory in this season’s edition.

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Billy