Another week, another game ending in garbage time. There wasn’t a ton to glean from the past game except Connecticut is really bad. But we can still take a stroll down over/under lane.
Indiana played a football game last weekend. We’re not trying to relive too much of it here. Mainly just want to hand out some points. Let’s get to it.
The Hoosiers look to rebound from their beatdown against Ohio State with a game against hapless Connecticut. If there was ever a game to build the team’s confidence prior to Michigan State, it’s this one.
Indiana faces Ohio State at home this weekend. Vegas has pegged the Hoosiers as 16.5 point underdogs which sounds like a lot but is the lowest spread between these teams in years.
SP+ currently gives Indiana a 16% chance of victory.
The Hoosiers and Buckeyes have played 12 times since 2005. If you compare the final SP+ ratings, not the rating at the time of the game but the season-ending rating, and adjust for home field advantage, Indiana would have been expected to have 0.74 TOTAL wins. Had they won just a single game during that time period (2012 or 2014 or 2015 especially or even 2017) Indiana would be considered to have overachieved against the Buckeyes. Yes, Indiana has failed to actually get that elusive win. But given the opponent they are facing, you could barely call it an underachievement.
It was a dominating effort against an outmatched Eastern Illinois team. The Hoosiers had a yards per play margin of 5.33. For reference, the last 2 times Indiana shut out a team, Charleston Southern in 2017 and Rutgers in 2017, had margins of 3.08 and 3.29.